We call for (extended) abstracts and/or papers dealing with all aspects related to the dynamics of disasters, and – in particular – encourage submissions dealing with hybrid threats to be presented at DOD 2024. We would also like to highlight that we encourage submissions addressing challenges relating to the interdisciplinary character of disaster response and disaster management.
We will organize a call for extended versions of papers presented at DOD2024 to be included in dedicated post-proceedings of DOD 2024 published by Springer, similar to previous editions of the DOD-series:
We are very much looking forward to hosting DOD 2024, which will be co-located with the 19th International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security (ARES) and welcoming you to Vienna!
Plenary Talk: Dynamics of Disasters
Extreme global disasters are a subject of scientific intrigue, and a huge amount of research has been devoted to them. Much work is devoted to studying them across the fields of science, ethics, and policy issues of catastrophic risk.
Humans experience a wide array of disasters that generally fall into two categories: natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, pandemics, etc.; and unnatural, or man-made, disasters such as wars, explosions, wildfires, chemical spills, etc.
Such disasters wreak havoc and provoke extensive and large-scale devastation, and carry extremely serious financial repercussions for nations, organizations, and individuals. In this lecture, we are going to address some of the issues regarding the dynamics of disasters and address some of the latest developments. We hope to stimulate and promote awareness and discussions.
Modeling and analyzing statistical dependence of catastrophic events
In recent years, the research about “multi-hazard” and “multi-risk” catastrophic events has gained special interest. In contrast to sectoral studies for earthquakes, floods, droughts etc. one looks now at the total hazard and risk a country or region is facing. It has been observed that a sequence of events of different types can be much devastating for a country or a region. Only by looking at global picture about risks threatening a region (e.g. Europe) allows to design the “optimal” risk management strategy.
While many publications about multi-hazards are of anecdotical character, we are interested in obtaining statistically sound results on probabilistic relationships.
Data on past catastrophic events contain information about the questions:
The usual independence assumption is not justified for some of these quantities and it can be often rejected. Here are the types of statistical dependencies, which are subject of our studies at the IIASA (International Institute of Applied System Analysis).
We explain in detail the triggering model, where an event of one type increases the intensity of a different type and present numerical results for some of these dependencies in the Danube region. Moreover, we link these models to systemic risk models. Systemic risk in the banking sector means that the bankruptcy of one bank increases the bankruptcy risk of other banks by influencing their “residual life time”. Freund-type copula models may quantify this relationship.